000
AGXX40 KNHC 230645
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
DIFFUSE TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE
GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY OBS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 30N66W AND LOW PRES
NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N
TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E-SE AND WEAKEN
THIS WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA BECOMES LESS OF
A FACTOR AS WELL...ALLOWING TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
STEADILY DIMINISH WITH SEAS BECOMING 5-6 FT BY SUN. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY BENIGN TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND WW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N66W WILL SHIFT E-SE AND WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE SHOW THE
TROUGH WRAPPING UP INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM E OF
60W WHILE THE GFS IS MORE RESTRAINED. APPEARS LIKELY THE TROUGH
WILL UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS2 COLLABORATION OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.