000 AGXX40 KNHC 220615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE EXTENSION OF HIGH PRES IN THE WESTERN ATLC PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE E TO SE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OCCUR. THE DYING FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVE CONVECTION AND A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A TROUGH ACROSS NE WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW GULF THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEST DESCRIBED AS A SHEAR LINE IN THE SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E-NE WINDS POLEWARD OF THE SHEAR LINE AND GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE SHEAR LINE BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE N-NE OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE LOW PRES OVER NRN COLOMBIA IS NOT AS INTENSE. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE REGION AND ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 23N INTO THE SE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N69W DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND MODERATE E-NE WINDS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHEAR LINE IN THE NE CARIBBEAN DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE TONIGHT AND SAT. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC SAT WITH A LOW N OF THE AREA...WHICH BECOMES SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED CROSSING 70W SUN THEN A WELL DEFINED BROAD TROUGH E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. ECMWF/UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT CLEAR CONSENSUS IS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE E OF 70W AS IT IS MOVING AWAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.