000 AGXX40 KNHC 211738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. E-SE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES IN THE NE GULF ERODES. OTHERWISE...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. BY FRI...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/20 ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT...AND THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRES MIGRATING E THROUGH THE N GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. THE 12Z NWPS INCORPORATES THE FAVORED WIND SOLUTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z NWPS...WITH THE 00Z/21 EC WAVE ADDED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTEST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO MEET OR EXCEED THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY... THROUGH FRI IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ITS ATLC APPROACHES AS WELL AS S OF HISPANIOLA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE BERMUDA FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO EXPAND S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PASSES JUST N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHRINK TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND CONTINUES PASSING WELL E OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE SAT. THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL MEAN WITH THIS SCENARIO AND GENERALLY HANDLES THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS BEST. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A FEW ROUNDS OF NORTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A STRONGER PUNCH OF NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EC WAVE GENERALLY HANDLES LONG-PERIOD SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC WATERS BETTER THAN THE NWPS AND MWW3...SO IT WAS ADDED TO THE BLEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z NWPS...WITH THE 00Z/21 EC WAVE ADDED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH BERMUDA FRI AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER W WATERS FRI AND SAT. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 12Z GFS WAS PREFERRED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND ENTERING NW WATERS IN THE SW N ATLC EARLY SAT. THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SEND IT SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST E OF BERMUDA BY MON NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES A PLAYER IN THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE GFS WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NWPS AND 00Z/20 EC WAVE WAS PREFERRED FOR THE SEAS...AS THE EC WAVE GENERALLY HANDLES LONG-PERIOD SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC WATERS BETTER THAN THE NWPS AND MWW3. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.