000 AGXX40 KNHC 200639 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 AM EDT WED APR 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. BLENDED LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND NWPS WITH WEIGHTING TOWARD GFS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS AND WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION. A DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FORECASTING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU...WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE N GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN FRI AND SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT AND SUN WITH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED. AS FAR AS CONVECTION...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THESE DISTURBANCES REACH THE WESTERN GULF. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING THE CONVECTION WELL AS SEEN FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED ON TUE. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. BY FRI WHEN THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE N GULF...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ZONES...SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. BLENDED LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND NWPS WITH WEIGHTING TOWARD GFS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL SUPPORT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WITH PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S OF THE SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE THIS WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE ATLC ZONES...SWELL FROM LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL PROPAGATE S TO SE THROUGH THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FT DURING THAT TIME. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...WITH MODELS ALSO FORECASTING ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ZONES THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. BLENDED LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND NWPS WITH WEIGHTING TOWARD GFS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE INTO OUR NE ZONES LATER TODAY WITH SWELL TO 9 FT MOVING ACROSS THE NE ZONES TONIGHT. SWELL OF 6 TO 7 FT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT REMAINING ZONES NE OF THE BAHAMAS THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE N GULF COAST ON FRI AND THEN THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA ATLC COAST FRI NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN...RESULTING IN E SE TO S FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NW ZONES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.