000 AGXX40 KNHC 191829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1244 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS THROUGH THU THEN 00Z/19 ECMWF ADDED TO BLEND. OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT IN THE SW GULF AND ALONG THE N AND NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THU MORNING. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH SET UP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE YUCATAN...CARRYING AN AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS NW ALONG WITH THE TROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS TYPICALLY HANDLES THIS SET UP BEST. THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT RESOLVING THE LINE OF TSTMS IN THE SW GULF VERY WELL...AND WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY HIGHER IN THIS AREA THAN DEPICTED. PUT AN AREA IN THE HSFAT2 THROUGH 06Z WED TO COVER THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS GENERAL AREA. BY THU NIGHT...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/29 ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODEL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO REDUCE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS THROUGH THU THEN 00Z/19 ECMWF ADDED TO BLEND. OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z NWPS THROUGH THU THEN 00Z/19 EC WAVE ADDED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTEST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO MEET OR EXCEED THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH FRI IN THE LEE OF CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ITS APPROACHES...AND THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THU BEFORE SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE BERMUDA FRI AND WEAKENING E OF THE AREA SAT AS NEW TROUGHING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE FAR W PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THIS TIME. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A FEW ROUNDS OF NORTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER PUNCH OF NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT FRI AND SAT. THE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/19 ECMWF BY THIS POINT...AND THE EC WAVE GENERALLY HANDLES LONG-PERIOD SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC WATERS BETTER THAN THE NWPS AND MWW3...SO IT WAS ADDED TO THE BLEND THU NIGHT ONWARD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS THROUGH THU THEN 00Z/19 ECMWF ADDED TO BLEND. OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST BLENDED WITH 12Z NWPS THROUGH THU THEN 00Z/19 EC WAVE ADDED. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG IN NE WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND LOW PRES APPROXIMATELY 420 NM E OF BERMUDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE E AWAY FROM THE AREA AS HIGH PRES ONLY SLOWLY CREEPS E INTO THU. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE THU...WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH BERMUDA FRI AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD SAT. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER WITH THE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER W WATERS FRI AND SAT. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/19 ECMWF WAS PREFERRED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF AND ENTERING NW WATERS IN THE SW N ATLC SOMETIME SAT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER...THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND THE LATEST GEFS AND EC ENS MEAN ARE IN BETWEEN. A BLEND SEEMS IN ORDER TO RESOLVE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NWPS AND 00Z/19 EC WAVE IS ALSO PREFERRED FOR THE SEAS BY THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS THE EC WAVE GENERALLY HANDLES LONG-PERIOD SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC WATERS BETTER THAN THE NWPS AND MWW3. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.