000 AGXX40 KNHC 190710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED THE 00Z GFS WITH PRECIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED MAINLY A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS SURROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE GULF. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH. THE EASTERLY WINDS SUPPORT SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE WEAKENING THERMAL TROUGH WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING. THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN OVERALL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGHING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS EACH NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY COMBINED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST GFS FORECASTS THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY...AND SHOULD SEPARATE FROM THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION. THEREFORE A DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES GENERALLY E TO NE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH THE MID WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PERIODS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US MOVING TO THE SE LATE THIS WEEK WHICH WILL TEND TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED THE 00Z GFS WITH PRECIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED MAINLY A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH ON TUE WITH CONVERGENT FLOW AND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. MAINLY FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 90 NM S OF EASTERN CUBA...AS CONFIRMED BY LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND IS POSITIONED SE OF HISPANIOLA WED MORNING...LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST WED MORNING...AND AGAIN THU MORNING. SEAS TO 7 FT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THESE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE TO THE NW OF THE AREA SUPPORTING THESE WINDS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...SETTLING TO THE NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLENDED THE 00Z GFS WITH PRECIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED MAINLY A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND 1001 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N46W TO 22N57W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A NEW RE-ENFORCING FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND MERGES WITH THE CURRENT FRONT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CURRENT FRONT THROUGH WED. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH N TO NW WINDS IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS N OF 30N. THIS AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL SLIDE EAST AS LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH WED. NEW LOW PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT ALONG 30N WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. HIGH SEAS FROM THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.