000 AGXX40 KNHC 180733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 333 AM EDT MON APR 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND 6-9 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ACTIVE CONVECTION LINGERS IN THE WESTERN GULF WHERE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS OVER THE FAR NW GULF. EXPECT THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY MODERATE THROUGH THU THEN GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI BRINGING A BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN...AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MORNING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS CLEAR OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA IS DISRUPTING THE NORMAL PRESSURE PATTERN ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG S OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG S OF E CUBA ON MON NIGHT. TRADES WILL INCREASE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES FINALLY SETTLES BACK DOWN N-NE OF THE BASIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-8 FT E OF 73W BY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...ATLC RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS PREVAILING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W ALONG 24N58W TO 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 60W. A REINFORCING SURGE EXTENDS THROUGH 31N64W TO 27N70W AROUND LOW LOCATED TO THE NE OF BERMUDA. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH NOW MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A NEW SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE REINFORCING SURGE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS...UP TO 15 FT NEAR 31N70W...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE LOW NE OF BERMUDA WILL SKIRT ALONG 32N THROUGH TUE BEFORE RACING NE TUE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA SHIFTING TOWARD ZONE AMZ111 BY TUE ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT/TROUGH WHICH WILL CLIP THE NE PORTION/ZONE AMZ115 EARLY WED. THE NE SWELL WILL LINGER GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E-SE REACHING NEAR 30N65W BY FRI ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.