000 AGXX40 KNHC 171728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 128 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXITED THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND 6-10 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ACTIVE CONVECTION LINGERS IN THE EASTERN GULF WHERE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARRIVE. EXPECT THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE... THEN WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY MODERATE THROUGH THU AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI BRINGING A BRIEF WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN...AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS CLEAR OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA IS DISRUPTING THE NORMAL PRESSURE PATTERN ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...THEN WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG S OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. TRADES WILL INCREASE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES FINALLY SETTLES BACK DOWN N-NE OF THE BASIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-8 FT E OF 73W BY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE EVENING...MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLC RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS PREVAILING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 26N63W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING DOWN S OF 31N AROUND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED TO THE N OF BERMUDA. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH NOW MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A NEW SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE REINFORCING TROUGH OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BASIN. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS...UP TO 15 FT NEAR 31N75W...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL SHIFT NE WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO SAG SE-S AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA WILL SKIRT ALONG 31N/32N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA SHIFTING TOWARD ZONE AMZ111 BY TUE ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT/TROUGH WHICH WILL CLIP THE NE PORTION/ZONE AMZ115 WED. THE NE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH MID- WEEK...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E-SE REACHING NEAR 30N65W BY FRI AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.