000 AGXX40 KNHC 161713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 113 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE NE GULF STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NEAR TAMPA BAY...TO THE W-NW TO S CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE N CENTRAL AND E GULF WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS N OF THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS MAINLY S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH MON WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT ACROSS THE BASIN BY EARLY MON...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN...AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS CLEAR OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09.5N75W AND BROAD RIDGING N-NE OF THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. PULSING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE S OF HISPANIOLA...AS WELL AS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEGINNING TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N54W TO 17N61W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY SUN. ATLC RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS PREVAILING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUES W-NW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY E OF 65W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 65W. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS S OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS S OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 8-12 FT N OF THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY BUOYS ALONG WITH A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS W OF 76W...WITH 4-6 FT SEAS S OF THE FRONT. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SE-S LATER TODAY... EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO 24N73W TO 26N80W BY SUN MORNING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 31N55W TO 23N65W TO 22N78W THROUGH EARLY MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CONTROLLING THE MAJORITY OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NE CORNER OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY ZONE AMZ115...WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY A SERIES OF FRONTS/TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND SURFACE LOWS. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SETS OF FRESH NW-N SWELL WILL IMPACT THE NE WATERS...THE FIRST SET OF SWELL EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...WITH SEAS UP TO 14-15 FT ALONG 31N SUN INTO MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.