000 AGXX40 KNHC 151837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 237 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 87W. WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE GULF...SO HAD TO BOOST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND BOOST WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZE OVER THE N GULF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH 8 TO 9 FT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACCORDINGLY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE MINIMAL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 8 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 28N72W...WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT...TO NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S...REACHING FROM 27N65W TO 28N81W SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM 25N65W TO 25N80W SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY. BUOY 41010 N OF THE NW BAHAMAS HAS BEEN RECORDING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 13 FT AROUND 18 UTC. THE WAVE HEIGHT PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THAT 12 FT SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO BY 06 UTC TONIGHT. NE SWELL...GREATER THAN 8 FT...WILL MOVE INTO NE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...PEAKING AT AROUND 12 FT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS NE SWELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 8 FT VALUES REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS COASTAL WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.