000 AGXX40 KNHC 141853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N93W WITH STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N87W TO NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE 12Z GFS CARRIES STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES ON LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE MODELS AGREE ON PHASING THIS ENERGY INTO THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC AND BUILDING THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES W WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE GFS GENERALLY HANDLES THIS DIURNAL PATTERN BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE 12Z NWPS INCORPORATES THE FAVORED WIND FIELD AND WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 12Z GFS IS FAVORED WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN N OF THE AREA. THE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW A FRESH BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE FRI AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY LATE SAT AND LATE SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS. A TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL APPROACH THE NE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING WINDS. THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LONG- PERIOD SWELL IN THE ATLC PROVIDES MORE CONFIDENCE IN USING THE NWPS AND MWW3 TO ADJUST THE SEAS. SINCE THE 12Z NWPS INCORPORATES THE FAVORED WIND FIELD...WILL USE IT TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 12Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL IN THE ATLC HAS BOOSTED CONFIDENCE IN THE MWW3/NWPS SOLUTIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR NW WATERS. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 12Z GFS WAS PREFERRED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND PHASING WITH THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE IN AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE FRESH TO STRONG FUNNELING WINDS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE COAST CLOSER. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS IT DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE N FL COAST ON FRI...PLACING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT IN THE N SEMICIRCLE DURING A PERIOD WHEN IT GENERATES ALMOST 4.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 6 HOURS. IN SUMMARY...12Z GFS WAS USED TO UPDATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 12Z NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER ERA/SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.