000 AGXX40 KNHC 140627 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 227 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER THE N GULF THIS MORNING. THE MODELS AGREE ON WINDS REMAINING BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AS THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MEANDER AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. THE 18Z GFS CARRIES STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT THAN THE 12Z/13 ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AND IS FASTER TO DRAG THE FRONT S THROUGH THE E GULF FRI. THE LATEST GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS AGREE WITH THE EARLIER GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GETTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS AGREE ON PHASING THIS ENERGY INTO THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC AND BUILDING THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS HEDGE TOWARD THE 18Z GFS SOLUTION BY PHASING THE ENERGY MORE SLOWLY AND HOLDING THE H5 TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILT THAN THE 12Z/13 ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS MORE LIKE THE MORE EASTERN 18Z GFS WITH THE H5 LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAN THE 00Z GFS. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THEREFORE...FEEL COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARD THE 18Z GFS TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ELSEWHERE...THE 18Z GFS SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES W WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE GFS GENERALLY HANDLES THIS DIURNAL PATTERN BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE 06Z NWPS INCORPORATES THE FAVORED WIND FIELD AND WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS STATED ABOVE...THE 18Z GFS IS FAVORED WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN N OF THE AREA. THE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW A FRESH BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE PREFERENCE FOR WIND HAS BEEN HEDGED TOWARD THE 18Z GFS. SEE THE SW N ATLC SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE TROUGHING N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL IN THE ATLC PROVIDES MORE CONFIDENCE IN USING THE NWPS AND MWW3 TO ADJUST THE SEAS AS THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY BETTER WITH LONG-PERIOD SWELL. SINCE THE 06Z NWPS INCORPORATES THE FAVORED WIND FIELD...WILL USE IT TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS STATED ABOVE...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL IN THE ATLC HAS BOOSTED CONFIDENCE IN THE MWW3/NWPS SOLUTIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR NW WATERS. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE STRONGER AND SLOWER 18Z GFS WAS PREFERRED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND PHASING WITH THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VAST UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE TO THE E WITH THIS UPPER LOW THAN THE 00Z GFS AND IS CLOSER TO THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENS MEAN CONSENSUS. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE IN AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE FRESH TO STRONG FUNNELING WINDS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE COAST CLOSER TO SHORE THAN THE 12Z/13 ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE GRID- SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS IT DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE N FL COAST FRI...PLACING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT IN THE N SEMICIRCLE DURING A PERIOD WHEN IT GENERATES ALMOST 4.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN 6 HOURS. OVERALL...THE 18Z GFS SEEMED THE MOST REASONABLE OF THE MODELS AND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS...WHICH ADOPTS THE FAVORED WIND FORECAST....WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.