000 AGXX40 KNHC 111901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 PM EDT MON APR 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12 UTC MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 2...HIGH CONFIDENCE DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE ARE IS HIGH PRES THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG HIGH CENTER OVER THE NRN ATLC SW TO ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 91W. W OF 91W...THE ISOBARIC PRES LOWER TO WELL INLAND TEXAS. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT IN THE FAR WRN GULF FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING S TO THE NW GULF ON TUE... AND PUSHING S TO NEAR 28N BY WED MORNING. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND LIFT NEWD TO ACROSS SE LOUISIANA WED AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WIND FIELD GRADIENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE. BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SWD INTO THE NE GULF...THEN BUILD SSW TO THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THOSE WATERS WITH INCREASING NE-E WINDS NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN THE PORTION. WITH THESE WINDS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY LATE SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...AND MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF WHILE IT WEAKENS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE STRONG E-SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12 UTC MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE OVERNIGHT GALE WARNING FOR NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12 UTC THIS MORNING. THE 1456 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED MOSTLY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. IN ADDITION...SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID "BATFR16" SAILING S ALONG 76W REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 27 KT NEAR 13Z THIS MORNING...AND AT 18Z REPORTED 20 KT NEAR 11N76W. THE ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-7 FT ATTRIBUTED TO NE SWELL IN THE NE AND E CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS ONES. A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN (ZONE AMZ031) TO WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH WED WITH WIND DROPPING OFF TO 10-15 KT THERE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3-5 FT PER MWW3/NWPS GUIDANCE. E-SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BEGIN TO THE FRESH INTENSITY BEGINNING WED NIGHT...AND THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF USED 12 UTC MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 2...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A STATIOANRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 26N65W SW TO JUST N OF THE COAST OF HAITI. A STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS W OF THE FRONT. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS INDUCING STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 360 NM NW OF THE FRONT...AND ALSO FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 90 NM TO 270 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE 1452 ASCAT PASS REVEALED THESE WINDS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS N OF 26N AS WERE OBSERVED IN THE ALTIMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N71W TO 23N75W WINDS ARE MODERATE NE WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. A RATHER STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST W OF THE FRONT IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT...AND N OF THE FRONT E OF 68W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...AND TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT FROM NEAR 31N62W TO 26N69W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING SE OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE WESTWARD THROUGH WED...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE E LATE WED AND THU. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO ITS W WEAKENS. THE END RESULT WILL BE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT LEADING TO THE STRONG NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE TUE AND EVEN LESS TO THE GENTLE RANGE WED WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY THEN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW PART WED. MODELS AGREE THAT IT SHOULD BE WEAK. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT...AND TRACK NE ALONG GEORGIA COAST INTO THU. THIS WILL PUSH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...APPEARS WILL BE A TROUGH S AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILD S INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS THU THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH PRES WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP JUST E OF N AND CENTRAL FL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS SUGGEST. THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE NE WINDS E OF NE FL FROM THU THROUGH SAT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO POSSIBLY 10 FT PER MWW3/NWPS OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.