000 AGXX40 KNHC 110608 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 208 AM EDT MON APR 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GULF LATE WED THROUGH FRI. THIS IS A TREND TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF TUE AND SETTLING ALONG 27N WED MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT APPEAR TO BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO GRID SCALE FEEDBACK THAT MAKE NO ONE SOLUTION PARTICULARLY RELIABLE...SO A MODEL BLEND SEEMS IN ORDER. OVERALL...WINDS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SE GULF THIS MORNING AND TO JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 06Z NWPS INCORPORATED THIS PREFERRED WIND FORECAST AND WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH 12Z/10 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA UNTIL SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE WIND GRIDS REFLECT THIS FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS FORECAST. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/10 ECMWF...BUT NEARLY ALWAYS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TERRAIN IMPACTS IN THIS REGION. THE GFS COMPARED WELL TO THE 2306Z ASCAT-B PASS FOR THE AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HERE TUE MORNING AS TROUGHING BUILDS NE OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEHIND A DISSIPATED REINFORCING FRONT HAS INCREASED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A STATIONARY FRONT N OF HAITI. NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH NE OF THE AREA. THE 12Z/10 ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE FORECAST TO THE N AND SHOWS STRONGER WINDS WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT THAT ARE VALIDATED BY THE 0138 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. THE GFS FORECAST IS IN THE SAME BALLPARK. A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND SEEMS IN ORDER...WITH WINDS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE FUNNELING NE WINDS ARE OFTEN TOO LIGHT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN PULSING WILL RESUME ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 06Z NWPS ADOPTED THIS FORECAST AND WILL BE USED IN THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE PREFERENCE FOR WIND AND SEAS HEDGED TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODELS. SEE THE SW N ATLC SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE TROUGHING N OF HISPANIOLA. THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS OF THE 12Z/10 EC WAVE COMPARE BETTER TO THE AVAILABLE ALTIMETER PASSES THAN THE UKMET WAVE OR MWW3. SINCE THE EC WAVE GENERALLY HANDLES LONG- PERIOD SWELL BETTER THAN THE MWW3...IT SEEMS TO BE A BETTER CHOICE FOR ADJUSTING SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/10Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z/10 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AGAIN...THE HIGHER SEAS SEEN IN THE 12Z/10 EC WAVE ARE MATCHING UP BETTER TO THE ALTIMETER PASS EXTENDING THROUGH 30N70W THAN THE 00Z MWW3 OR 00Z NWPS. THE EC WAVE GENERALLY CARRIES MORE OF A SWELL COMPONENT IN THE OPEN ATLC THAT CONTINUES TO COMPARE BETTER TO OBSERVATIONS THAN THE MWW3 OR NWPS. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z/10 ECMWF IS GENERAL PREFERRED WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE SW N ATLC. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 12Z/10 ECMWF STRONGER INITIALIZATION WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT THAT HAS MERGED WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM 26N65W TO NW HAITI IS COMPARING BETTER TO THE 0138Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE ECMWF IS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WEAKENS THIS FRONT TO A TROUGH BY TUE. AS IT SENDS THE TROUGH NORTHWARD WED...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. THE UKMET AGREES THAT THE ANCHOR LOW PRES SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SC COAST WED AND THU AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES N AND GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA. THE GEFS MEAN SOLUTION IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE...HEDGED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHEN ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.