000 AGXX40 KNHC 101757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 157 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE OF THE BASIN. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH TUE MORNING. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO MAX AT 6-7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF BY MON MORNING UNTIL WINDS THERE VEER AS THE NEXT FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COAST TUE MORNING. THE WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY STALL AND LIE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI ON WED AND BECOME DIFFUSE ON THU. GIVEN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXPECTED WED AND THU...SEAS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A RANGE OF 2-5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8-12 FT WITH THE 11-12 FT MAXIMUM AREA NOTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA IS INCREASING NE WINDS TO THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 10/1428 UTC INDICATED THE STRONGER NE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA. THE INCREASED WIND FIELD HERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH THE PERSISTENT NE WINDS...AFTER WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE AND BECOME DIFFUSE ON WED. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE THROUGH THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS OF THE 10/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 31N63W TO 22N78W WITH A DISSIPATING SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOTED FROM 31N68W TO 28N75W TO 28N80W. FRESH N-NE WINDS FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE EACH FRONT...ONE ACROSS AN AREA NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN THE VICINITY OF 24N73W AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF 29N73W. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MERGING OF THESE FRONTS BY TONIGHT WHEN THE LEADING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL...WEAKEN...AND DRIFT NW BEGINNING LATE MON INTO TUE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH TUE. BY TUE NIGHT A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE CYCLOGENESIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GENERATING MODERATE NORTHERLIES WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.