000 AGXX40 KNHC 100636 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN JUST NWPS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF. WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z UKMET HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE TROUGHING IN THE NW GULF LATE WED...THEY ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z/09 ECMWF WHICH CARRIES A DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER HERE AT THAT TIME. THE ECMWF STILL HAS 25 KT WINDS IN THE AREA WHILE THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN...BUT DOES NOT ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 25 KT. THE ECMWF GOES ON TO BE AN OUTLIER BY CARRYING A SURFACE LOW E INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF BY THU NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION IN THE NW GULF AND CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. THE 06Z NWPS INCORPORATED THIS PREFERRED WIND FORECAST AND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH 12Z/09 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WIND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW GALES IN THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS FORECAST WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/09 ECMWF...BUT NEARLY ALWAYS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TERRAIN IMPACTS IN THIS REGION. THE GFS COMPARES BEST TO THE 0156Z ASCAT-B PASS OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOWED 30 KT WINDS. THE 06Z NWPS WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO THE LEE OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACCORDING TO THAT SAME ASCAT PASS. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE WINDS HERE. INCREASED WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH TUE MORNING IN THIS AREA. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE...BASICALLY BUMPING UP THE BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST ABOUT 2 KT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE SURGE OF NE WINDS. SEAS WERE ALSO MANUALLY ADJUSTED ABOUT 2 FT IN THESE REGIONS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE 12Z/09 EC WAVE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT HIGHER WITH THE SEAS. THE EC WAVE HAS GENERALLY PERFORMED BETTER WITH LONG-PERIOD SWELL THE LAST FEW DAYS COMPARED TO THE MWW3 OR NWPS...SO IT WAS RELIED ON HERE FOR SEAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC THAT USING THE EC WAVE FORECAST SHOULD NOT PROVE PROBLEMATIC HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 06Z NWPS AND 12Z/09 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN JUST NWPS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AGAIN...THE HIGHER SEAS SEEN IN THE 12Z/09 EC WAVE ARE MATCHING UP BETTER TO THE ALTIMETER PASS EXTENDING THROUGH 30N75W THAN THE 00Z MWW3 OR 06Z NWPS. THE EC WAVE GENERALLY CARRIES MORE OF A SWELL COMPONENT IN THE OPEN ATLC THAT CONTINUES TO COMPARE BETTER TO OBSERVATIONS THAN THE MWW3 OR NWPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PILING UP ACROSS WATERS FROM BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THE 00Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF AGREE ON BUILDING A LARGE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS N OF THE LEAD BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS DURING THIS TIME AND THEN WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES AS A WARM FRONT BEGINNING LATE MON. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH TUE. DIFFERENCES ARISE TUE NIGHT IN NW WATERS AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET WITH THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ECMWF BEGINS TO BECOME AN OUTLIER UPSTREAM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET IS RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE 00Z GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD. A BLEND OF THE 00Z NWPS AND 12Z/07 EC WAVE WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...BUT THE EC WAVE WAS TAKEN OUT OF THE BLEND BY WED WHEN THE ECMWF BEGINS TO STRAY FROM THE PREFERRED FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.