000 AGXX40 KNHC 091823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 223 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST BY SUN MORNING...MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE W GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE ACROSS THE NE GULF...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLIDE OFFSHORE OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST AND LIE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH WED WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3-5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS FORECAST WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE 09/12Z UKMET AND 09/00Z ECMWF...BUT NEARLY ALWAYS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TERRAIN IMPACTS IN THIS REGION. THIS IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 8 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE LEE OF CUBA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS WELL AS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN NIGHT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS ALLOW WINDS TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE. THE SAME IS TRUE OF A REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH BRINGING A FRESH NE BREEZE TO THE LEE OF CUBA EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N78W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATING FRESH W TO NW WINDS WEST OF THE LEADING FRONT. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE SECONDARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY FROM NEAR 26N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ON SUN WILL STRENGTHEN WITH FRESH NE WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. ON MON...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NW RESTORING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS. WITH THE MERGING OF THE COLD FRONTS THROUGH SUN...COMBINED SEAS WITH NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8-10 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 8 FT SEAS REACHING WELL WEST OF THE FRONT BY SUN NIGHT TO 72W AND SEAS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE BAHAMAS. BY MON...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM SW TO NE...AND SEAS DROPPING BELOW 8 FT ACROSS ALL ZONES BY MON NIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS ALSO INDICATE THE NEXT WEAK FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH FRESH NE WINDS EXPECTED BY WED NIGHT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.