000 AGXX40 KNHC 081824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED MAX SEAS OF 3 FT ACROSS BIG BEND REGION...AND TO W OF YUCATAN CHANNEL. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE ACROSS E TWO- THIRDS OF BASIN TODAY WITH FRESHENING NLY WINDS GRADUALLY FILLING IN ACROSS N PORTIONS BEHIND IT...INCREASING SEAS TO 3 FT N OF 28N. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF ARE MODEST THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH GFS STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF MODELS WITH THIS CURRENT FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NW CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT TO 20-25 KT N OF FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AND SHIFT S ACROSS E HALF THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NEAR 20 KT THROUGH SUN AND THEN TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON. INDUCED PRES GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE LOCAL EFFECT ALONG N-NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND NW CUBA AND ALLOW FOR PULSING OF NE WINDS TO 25 KT DURING EVENING MAX SAT. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 8 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND THROUGH COLOMBIAN BASIN TODAY YIELDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OFF OF COLOMBIAN COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NW PART BEHIND INDUCE CONVERGENCE LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NE NICARAGUA. NLY SWELL UNDERFORECAST BY WAVE MODELS MOVING THROUGH NE CARIB PASSAGES ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE IN RECENT GUIDANCE...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH JUST VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS SUN THEN GRADUALLY WASHING OUT THROUGH MON. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON WILL INDUCE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS COLOMBIAN BASIN FOR NOCTURNAL WINDS TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE BRIEFLY SAT AND SUN NIGHTS AS DEPICTED BY GFS...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN GRIDS AND HIGH SEAS. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW PORTIONS EARLY SUN...IT SHOULD BRING A SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE LEE OF CUBA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS WELL AS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE S CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN NIGHT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW WINDS REACHING SOLID 25 KT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...NNW SWELL HAVE BEGUN TO ARRIVE ACROSS N PORTIONS TODAY...WITH BUOYS TO THE NW REPORTING SEAS 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 AND 0.5-2 FT HIGHER THAN ECWAVE. THE ECWAVE GENERALLY HANDLES THE LONG-PERIOD SWELL BETTER IN THE OPEN ATLC THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO IT WAS RELIED ON HERE FOR SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TWO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS TODAY WITH MODERATE W TO SW WINDS GENERALLY PREVAILING ACROSS NW QUARTER OF THE AREA. SE TO SW WINDS TO THE E OF THIS ACCELERATE TO NEAR 20 KT JUST E OF FIRST FRONTS NEARING 70W...AND N OF 29-30N. MAIN ISSUE PRESENTLY IS ACCOUNTING FOR N SWELL MOVING ACROSS E PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE BUOYS STILL 2-4 FT ABOVE WW3 OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND 0.5-2 FT ABOVE ECWAVE...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH TREND OF STRONG BLEND OF ECWAVE FOR ENTIRE FORECAST. WEAK FRONTS TO MOVE SE AND NEARLY MERGE FROM SE OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN MORNING WHERE THEY WILL STALL. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS MS VALLEY BEHIND FRONT SAT WILL BUILD SE INTO AREA LATE SAT THEN SHIFT E TO MID ATLC COAST THROUGH LATE SUN TO PRODUCE STRONG NW FLOW N WATERS INITIALLY...THEN NE WINDS WITHIN 120-150 NM OF FRONT SUN SPREADING WWD THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS. SEAS TO BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT N OF FRONT DURING THIS TIME WHILE MODEST NW SWELL PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN TO RAISE SEAS 8-10 FT NE PORTIONS. STALLED BOUNDARY TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NW MON AND TUE WITH FRESH NE WINDS TO N OF IT MAINTAINING SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE IN MIXED NW SWELL AND NE WIND SEA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.