000 AGXX40 KNHC 080649 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 00Z NWPS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF ARE SLIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST APPEARS AS GOOD AS ANY FOR ADJUSTING THE WINDS. IT GENERALLY DOES A BETTER JOB WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH PASSING W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS ONE AREA OF INTEREST FOR WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AT 06Z SAT AS WELL AS BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S THROUGH THE E GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. THIS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/07 ECMWF...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR WHICH IS EXPECTED BY THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 8 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NWPS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE WAVE HEIGHTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 00Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH 12Z/07 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA UPON THE ISSUANCE OF THE 06Z TEXT PRODUCT SUITE. THE WIND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW GALES IN THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT-SUN AND SUN-MON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS FORECAST WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE 00Z UKMET AND 12Z/07 ECMWF...BUT NEARLY ALWAYS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TERRAIN IMPACTS IN THIS REGION. THIS IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 8 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z NWPS DID NOT INCORPORATE THE PREFERRED STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...SO THE 00Z MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST SEAS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE LEE OF CUBA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS WELL AS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE S CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN NIGHT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS ALLOW WINDS TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE. THE SAME IS TRUE OF A REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING A FRESH NE BREEZE TO THE LEE OF CUBA EARLY MON MORNING. AGAIN...THE 00Z MWW3 SEEMED REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY WITH THE SWELL IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WHERE BUOY 41043 REPORTED 9 FT AT 06Z. THE MWW3 IS 2 FT TOO LOW HERE AND THE NWPS AND 00Z UKMET ARE ABOUT A FOOT TOO LOW WHILE THE EC WAVE IS AROUND A HALF FOOT TOO LOW. THE EC WAVE GENERALLY HANDLES THE LONG-PERIOD SWELL BETTER IN THE OPEN ATLC THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO IT WAS RELIED ON HERE FOR SEAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH OVER THE ATLC THAT USING THE EC WAVE FORECAST SHOULD NOT PROVE PROBLEMATIC HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. THE 00Z NWPS AND 12Z/07 EC WAVE BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE HIGHER SEAS SEEN IN THE 12Z/07 EC WAVE FORECAST JUST E OF THE AREA AT BUOY 41049 ARE CLOSER TO THE OBSERVED VALUE THAN THE 00Z GFS...00Z NWPS AND 00Z UKMET WHICH ARE 1 FOOT TOO LOW. HOWEVER...THE EC WAVE APPEARS TOO SLOW TO BRINGS THE SWELL DOWN OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WHERE IT IS 1-2 FT TOO HIGH WITH THE SEAS AT BUOY 41010. THE OTHER MODELS ARE BETTER INITIALIZED FOR SEAS. THE 12Z/07 ECMWF IS TOO STRONG WITH THE WINDS IN THIS AREA...WHICH IS CAUSING THE BUMP IN SEAS. THE MWW3 SHOWS SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN N WATERS AT 00Z SUN...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A VAST AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. THE EC WAVE AND ECMWF ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE OPC FORECAST JUST TO THE N LEANS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER EC SOLUTIONS. OVERALL...BLENDING THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEING MINDFUL OF THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STRONGEST WINDS PRODUCED A REASONABLE FORECAST THAT WAS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORS. A BLEND OF THE 00Z NWPS AND 12Z/07 EC WAVE WITH THE OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST ALSO SEEMED REASONABLE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.