000 AGXX40 KNHC 071902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 302 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS DRY WEAK FRONT IS MOVING ESE ACROSS THE GULF ATTM WITH WEAK HIGH SHIFTING INTO NE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY ACROSS NE PORTIONS NOW 3-4 FT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIDGING OVER FRONT SW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. FRONT TO MOVE TO SE ACROSS FL PENINSULA TONIGHT TRAILING WSW ACROSS SE GULF WHERE IT WILL BECOME ILL DEFINED. SECONDARY FRONT TO DROP INTO N GULF BY 12Z FRI THEN MOVE ACROSS SE GULF AND EXTREME S FL BY 12Z SAT AND THEN SINK FARTHER S ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA BY SUN MORNING. AS SECONDARY MOVES ACROSS SE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS MS VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PRODUCE FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT ACROSS NE PORTIONS THAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SW AND W ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN. AS MENTIONED OVERNIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE SECOND FRONT IN THE PAST FEW RUNS. HOWEVER...HOLDING TO MODEL BIASES...GFS REMAINS FASTEST AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SE THAN EURO MODELS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LAST NIGHT APPEAR TO STILL LINGER THROUGH PASSAGE TO JAMAICA WHERE INVERTED TROFFING HAS DEVELOPED. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS W OF THIS FEATURE PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NW CARIB AND VEER ELY INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE SEAS WERE 4-5 FT THIS MORNING AND PROBABLY 3-5 FT NOW. STRONG TRADES PERSIST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES STILL ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND THOSE BUOYS HANGING AT 4 FT NOW. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE A NEW FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS SW N ATLC AND THROUGH BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG HIGH BEHIND IT BUILDING INTO THE BASIN FROM THE NNW...AND WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W. NOCTURNAL MAX WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA STARTING FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND COULD BRIEFLY REACH NEAR GALE. AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE BAHAMAS SUN-MON...INDUCED PRES GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE. GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT AND WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS TIME THAN ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE MODERATE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TWO WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STALLED ACROSS THE SE WATERS PAST 24-36 HOURS ARE NOW ILL DEFINED...AND DRIFTING NWD AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT APPROACHING NW WATERS ATTM. MORNING BUOY OBS AND ALTIMETER PASSES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG NLY SWELL MOVING ACROSS ATLC WATERS AND HEADED TOWARD NE CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC...WITH WW3 RUNNING 2-4 FT LOW...AND ECWAVE 1-2 FT LOW. ZONE OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND LIFTING NE OF AREA...BUT RESIDUAL NE WIND SEA AND N SWELL PRODUCING SEAS 15-18 FT PER ALTIMETER DATA JUST NE OF THE AREA INVOF 28N58W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE S TO SE AND ACROSS REMAINING ATLC WATERS AND INTO NE CARIB PASSAGES NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND ECWAVE WILL BE APPROPRIATE MODEL. NEXT SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION N WATERS TONIGHT AND FRI AHEAD OF FRONT AND N OF 27N. FRESH SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL E OF FRONT TO 70W TONIGHT...WITH NEXT FRONT REACHING 31N73W TO PALM BEACH BY 12Z FRI...INTO NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR BERMUDA BY 12Z SAT...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS SE BAHAMAS TO 30N62W BY 12Z SUN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL BECOME MAIN BOUNDARY BY SAT...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO SE OF BERMUDA SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT AND SUN TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING NE TO E THROUGH MON. BUILDING SEAS IN MIXED NE WINDSEA AND MODEST N SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS 7-10 ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS SE WATERS BY MON MORNING. HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR FRONTAL POSITIONS...AND BLENDED STRONG PORTION OF ECWAVE FOR ATLC WATERS ONLY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.