000 AGXX40 KNHC 070526 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL RACE E PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON REACHING OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING...NOTING THAT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOSE IDENTITY IN A RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MEANDER FROM SW LA TO THE FL STRAITS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW POST- FRONTAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS MORNING. FRESH NE FLOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING ON FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO STRONG NE-E FLOW ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL WATERS EARLY SUN. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS STARTING SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SAT NIGHT AND SUN RESULTING IN STRONG SE RETURN FLOW FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE W GULF ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON. EXPECT STRONG N-NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN ON SAT EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STILLING EXPECTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA THROUGH FRI. FRESH NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT WITH EMBEDDED SMALL PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME MORE ON SUN WITH STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 75-81W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ON SUN EVENING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. TWO WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTEND SW FROM NEAR 31N55W TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA. FOR SIMPLICITY WILL REFER TO A SINGLE BOUNDARY IN TEXT PRODUCTS. STRONG NE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 56-62W THIS MORNING WITH SEAS OF 10-14 FT. LARGE N SWELL CONTINUES TO ENHANCE COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS 0F 7-10 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 22N BETWEEN 55-74W. THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N W OF 75W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM 31N73W TO THE NW CUBA ON FRI...AND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON FRI NIGHT...FROM 31N63W TO HAITI ON SAT NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT BEGINNING TO STALL ON SUN NIGHT FROM 31N55W TO 25N62W THEN A FRONTAL TROUGH TO 20N73W. GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NW MOVING REMNANTS NEAR 24N64W ON TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.