000 AGXX40 KNHC 051843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT ENE PASSING JUST S OF THE MS DELTA THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N-CENTRAL GULF LATE WED AND SWEEP E ACROSS THE E GULF ON THU AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE GULF ON THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO EARLY SAT. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON SAT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL WASHOUT TODAY WHILE THE EASTERN SEGMENT CONTINUES E TOWARD HAITI TONIGHT AND WED...THEN GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT. FRESH NE FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED WITH A SMALL PATCH OF STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED BRIEFLY NEAR 19.5N78.5W AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN QUICKLY RELAX...WITH THE NE FLOW DIMINISHING TO GENTLE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NW TO SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER IN WEEK. MODERATE E FLOW IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA E OF 77W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO EAST CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN...REACHING FROM 22N65W TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI WED EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. POST-FRONTAL STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65-80W. THIS STRONG N PULSE WILL SEND A BATCH OF N SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 7-10 FT COMBINED SEAS...S ACROSS THE WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS WED THRU THU. EXPECT A SWATH OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55-65W ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST ON THU REACHING A PSN FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA ON FRI...AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA ON SUN. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ON FRI NIGHT TO THE N OF 29N W OF 72W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.