000 AGXX40 KNHC 050512 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 112 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT ENE PASSING JUST S OF THE MS DELTA THIS EVENING...THEN ACCELERATE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N-CENTRAL GULF LATE WED AND SWEEP E ACROSS THE E GULF ON THU AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE GULF ON THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO EARLY SAT. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON SAT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL WASHOUT TODAY WHILE THE EASTERN SEGMENT CONTINUES E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY LOSES IDENTITY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED. FRESH NE FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A SMALL PATCH OF STRONG NE FLOW EXPECTED BRIEFLY NEAR 19.5N78.5W AT SUNRISE ON WED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN QUICKLY RELAX...WITH THE NE FLOW DIMINISHING TO GENTLE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY LATE WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NW TO SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER IN WEEK. MODERATE E FLOW IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA E OF 77W THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA. AN ILL-DEFINED LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 28N75W AND IS EXPECT TO RACE NE REACHING NEAR 32N65W AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ESE OFF THE NE FL COAST. THUS...STILL EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING THAT WILL REACH FROM 31N62W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON WED. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 25N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON WED NIGHT WITH THE REMNANTS MOVING NW ON THU AND DISSIPATING ON FRI. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF 29.5N WITHIN 270 NM E OF THE TRANSITIONED COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND LIFT N OF 31N ON WED MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO STRONG TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 65-80W. THIS STRONG N PULSE WILL SEND A BATCH OF N SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 7-10 FT COMBINED SEAS...S ACROSS THE WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS ON WED INTO THU. EXPECT A SWATH OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 55-65W ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST ON THU REACHING A PSN FROM 31N72W TO THE E CUBA ON FRI...AND FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI ON SUN. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ON FRI NIGHT TO THE N OF 29N W OF 72W. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.