000 AGXX40 KNHC 041702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 102 PM EDT MON APR 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE RATHER SLIGHT UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF. THE 00Z/04 ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE N GULF. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE 12Z UKMET AGREES ON A STRONGER SOLUTION. WILL ADJUST THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF FRI MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE GFS IS 6-12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND SEEMS TO BE THE COURSE OF LEASE REGRET FOR ADJUSTING THE WINDS. THE LATEST NWPS REFLECTS THE PREFERRED WIND FIELD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST THROUGH WED THEN A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN HUG A BIT CLOSER TO SHORE WED THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE N IS SHIFTED EASTWARD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS STRETCHED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT THE MOMENT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TUE BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED AND DISSIPATING THU. THE GFS IS IN LINE WITH THE FAVORED FORECAST FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN TO THE N THROUGH WED WHICH IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY BETTER WITH ITS STRONGER TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO THE N IS WELL FORECAST. THE GFS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE AS WELL THROUGH WED. AS STATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FAVORED SOLUTION FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT AND THU. THIS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGING N OF THE AREA WHICH DIMINISHES THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SLIGHTLY. A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND WAS PREFERRED FROM WED ONWARD IN CONSIDERATION OF THIS AND THE MODEL PREFERENCE WITH THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF FRI. THE LATEST NWPS ADOPTED THIS PREFERRED WIND FIELD AND SEEMED REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL BLEND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS RESIDE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE TONIGHT. THE 00Z/04 ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE. THE 12Z UKMET IS EVEN WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE PICKING UP OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS TUE...BUT HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS BEST FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLC THU INTO FRI THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NW WATERS THU. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN N WATERS AHEAD OF A SURFACE WAVE JUST N OF THE AREA THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE SO FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONSIDERING THE BIG TREND AWAY FROM A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE MID ATLC THU. A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED...WITH WINDS KEPT BELOW GALE FORCE HERE FOR NOW. THE LATEST NWPS REFLECTS THESE WIND FIELD PREFERENCES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.