000 AGXX40 KNHC 040633 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 157 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW WATERS AT 29N92W AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW TO NEAR 27N95W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NE PASSING JUST S OF THE MS DELTA LATE TUE...THEN THEN ACCELERATE AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA EARLY WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N-CENTRAL GULF LATE WED...SWEEP ACROSS THE E GULF ON THU AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SE LATER THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY WASHOUT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO DRIFT E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT. GENTLE N FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W ON THU AND FRI...AND MODERATE E FLOW TO THE E OF 77W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO 23N80W WILL STALL BRIEFLY TODAY FROM 31N60W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N-CENTRAL CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N75W THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT REACHING NEAR 32N64W EARLY TUE. THE TRAILING FRONT TO THE S OF THE LOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE E REACHING A PSN FROM 31N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE...FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON WED...AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 29N55W TO HAITI ON WED NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE NW ON THU AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF 29.5N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TRANSITIONED COLD FRONT ON TUE...SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUE NIGHT AND LIFT N OF 31N EARLY WED. THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO STRONG ON TUE INTO WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 55-80W. THIS STRONG N PULSE WILL SEND A BATCH OF N SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS...S ACROSS THE WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS ON WED INTO THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST ON THU NIGHT REACHING A PSN FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.