000 AGXX40 KNHC 030555 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PASS SLOWLY E THROUGH THE EXTREME SE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG POST-FRONTAL N FLOW ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE NW WATERS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER AROUND A SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL FORM ON MON...SHIFT ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUE...AND THEN ACCELERATE NE OF THE AREA EARLY WED. BY THEN E-SE MODERATE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N-CENTRAL GULF ON WED NIGHT...SWEEP ACROSS THE E GULF ON THU...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT. FRESH NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON...STALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON...AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GENTLE N FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W ON THU AND MODERATE E FLOW TO THE E OF 77W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W WILL REACH FROM 31N62W TO E CUBA TONIGHT...STALL BRIEFLY MON FROM 31N60W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION DRIFTING W TO N-CENTRAL CUBA. A SURFACE LOW MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP BRIEFLY ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N75W. THE FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE A REINFORCING NORTHWESTERLY SURGE MON NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT E AGAIN REACHING FROM 31N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE...AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 29N55W TO HISPANIOLA ON WED INTO THU. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW N OF 29.5N WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT N OF 31N TONIGHT. THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO STRONG ON TUE INTO WED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 70-79W. THIS STRONG N PULSE WILL SEND A BATCH OF N SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS...S ACROSS THE WATERS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS ON WED INTO THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.