000 AGXX40 KNHC 021754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND EC WAVE BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE FAR SW GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF NEAR 18N94W. THE 12Z GFS INITIALIZED WINDS TO 40 KT. THE OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND WAS 38 KT G 46 KT AT 16Z. THE 00Z/02 ECMWF ONLY SHOWED 30 KT WINDS HERE. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE WINDS. FOR SEAS...AN ALTIMETER PASS THROUGH THE W GULF AROUND 12Z SHOWED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE FROM 22N-26N ALONG 95W. THE 12Z UKMET WAVE HAD THE HIGHEST SEAS OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND MATCHED THE ALTIMETER PASS BEST. THE NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 HERE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE OBSERVATIONS. THE EC WAVE SEEMED TO MATCH UP BETTER EARLY ON. THE EC WAVE ALSO HANGS ONTO THE SWELL A BIT LONGER THAN THE MWW3. THE EC WAVE HAS A BETTER TRACK RECORD UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS...SO IT WAS RELIED ON FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE GULF. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE RATHER SLIGHT UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF. THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET ARE SLOWER AND CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING E THROUGH THE GULF THAN THE 00Z/02 ECMWF WHICH WAITS FOR A SECONDARY FRONT LATE THU NIGHT TO LOWER THICKNESSES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NE GULF. THE EC ENS AND GEFS ENS MEANS SEEM TO SUPPORT THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION...SO THE GFS WAS PREFERRED. THIS WAS CLOSE TO THE WIND FIELD USED FOR THE NWPS RUN WHICH SEEMED TO BE ACCEPTABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE WAVE GRIDS FROM MON ONWARD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONG E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS SEEN THIS MORNING ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUN AFTERNOON...STALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON...AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ON TUE. AS STATED ABOVE...THE GFS IS FAVORED WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN TO THE N WED NIGHT ONWARD WHICH IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE AS WELL. THE NWPS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z/02 ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS OBSERVED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES OFF THE NE FL COAST. THE STRONGER 12Z UKMET AND 00Z/02 ECMWF ARE PANNING OUT BETTER HERE THAN THE WEAKER 12Z GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT UP SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE UKMET BY SUN...BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE MORE SUPPORT FROM THE EC ENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES WHICH ARE ALSO SLOWER THAN THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/02 ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS LATE TUE...BUT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z UKMET. AS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION HAS MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND IS PREFERRED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.