000 AGXX40 KNHC 020507 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 107 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WILL REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH THE FL STRAITS LATE SUN. PATCHY FOG STILL REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY NUMEROUS LIGHTNING REPORTED N OF 27N ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WILL BE DEPICTED AS SCT TS IN WEATHER GRIDS TODAY. MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N WILL DIMINISH TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE 30- 40 KT NW WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 19.5N96W EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE N THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 13 FT IN THE GALE AREAS...AND 8-11 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE STRONG N FLOW...ALL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON SUN AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NW WATERS ON SUN EVENING...WITH THE RETURN FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N-CENTRAL GULF ON WED NIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE E GULF ON THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONG E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUN AFTERNOON...STALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON...AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ON TUE. STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL FL WILL SHIFT S THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N70W TO THE BAHAMA CHANNEL EARLY SUN...REACH FROM BERMUDA TO N-CENTRAL CUBA ON SUN...STALL BRIEFLY FROM 31N60W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N- CENTRAL CUBA EARLY MON WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 27N68W. THE FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE A REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE MON NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT E AGAIN REACHING FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA ON TUE...AND THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM 28N55W TO THE PUERTO RICO ON WED. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING N OF 29.5N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT...WITH THESE STRONG CONDITIONS SHIFTING E AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUN..THEN SHIFTING N OF 31N ON SUN EVENING. THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO STRONG ON TUE INTO WED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 70-79W. THIS STRONG N PULSE WILL SEND A BATCH OF N SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 7-9 FT COMBINED SEAS...S ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS ON WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.