000 AGXX40 KNHC 010515 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH MANY OBS REPORTING FOG ACROSS THE NW WATERS WHICH WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE NW GULF AS WELL...BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED DENSE LOW- MID CLOUDS ATTM. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO TAMPICO MEXICO LATE TODAY...FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SAT...AND PASS THROUGH THE FL STRAITS MIDDAY SUN. STRONG N FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THESE TX COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE W OF A LINE FROM THE MS DELTA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT...WITH SMALL EMBEDDED PATCHES OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE POST-FRONTAL N FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY SUN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NW WATERS ON SUN EVENING...WITH THE RETURN FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS..AND CONTINUING THROUGH INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONG E WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA W OF 66W TONIGHT. STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 85W LATER THIS MORNING. THE AFFECTED AREA OF STRONG SE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO S OF 19N W OF 84.5W TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUN AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ON MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH ARE LIFTING N ALONG 28N BETWEEN 55- 72W. A RIDGE IS SETTING UP FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES EXPECTED S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON SAT AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE FL STRAITS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SW FLOW CONTINUING N OF 29.5N WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH THESE STRONG CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF 31N SUN EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY FROM 31N58W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N- CENTRAL CUBA LATE MON...THEN MOVE E AGAIN MON NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N58W TO HISPANIOLA LATE TUE NIGHT. THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO STRONG LATE TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.