000 AGXX40 KNHC 310749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 349 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0054Z RAPIDSCAT...0256Z ASCAT-A...0348Z ASCAT-B AND OIL PLATFORMS 42361 AND 42362 INDICATE THAT A 40 KT GALE EVENT HAS UNEXPECTEDLY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. THE GALE IS OCCURRING IN OUR NW GULF...GMZ011...AND N CENTRAL GULF..GMZ013...ZONES. PEAK WINDS FROM THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETERS WERE 35-40 KT...WHILE THE PEAK 10 M SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 42361 WERE 43 KT AROUND 03Z AND FROM 42362 WERE 37 KT AROUND 07Z. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FROM BUOY 42019 RAMPED UP QUICKLY FROM 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 FT CURRENTLY. CURRENT CONDITIONS PLUS SHORT TERM TRENDS IN THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE GALE MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS NE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD FRIDAY ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MOVE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. GALE WARNING FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PREVAIL N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THESE TWO AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...REACHING NEAR 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND DIMINISHING TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETREAT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A DECREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING E OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THERE IS A LOCALLY TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA/AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.