000 AGXX40 KNHC 300759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE SHORT-TERM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE DAYS THREE TO FIVE. NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES NOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS CAUSING A NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF. THE RESULTING SURFACE WINDS ARE E TO SE AT A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THE SE WINDS WILL REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW GULF BY FRIDAY AND STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE N TO NE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS FUNNELING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND NOW SUGGEST THAT THEY MAY REACH GALE LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY NEAR TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO BY MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH 6-7 FT IN THE SE RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PEAK ABOUT 8-9 FT IN THE N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB BERMUDA HIGH AND A 1006 MB COLOMBIA LOW ARE PRODUCING GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS REACHING A STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN REPORTING 7-8 FT SEAS...THOUGH THE PEAK WAVES ARE LIKELY AROUND 10 FT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND WINDS NEAR COLOMBIA SHOULD DROP TO A FRESH BREEZE BY THURSDAY. THE GULF OF HONDURAS WINDS WILL ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS A STRONG BREEZE OVER A LARGER AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS TOO WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL NEAR COLOMBIA WILL DROP BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD STAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ARE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY SWELL ENHANCED BY TRADEWINDS EAST OF THE AREA WILL HELP PRODUCE SEAS 8-9 FT SOUTH OF 15N LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FORCING WILL RELAX LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DROPPING BACK TO 6-7 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC MAP INDICATES A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 30N75W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD A COUPLE HUNDRED NM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE LOW/TROUGH/CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ASIDE FROM THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY AREA OF STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS WAS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AS SEEN IN THE 0226 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES WESTWARD TO 28N73W. NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON LATER TODAY. BY THURSDAY...THE WINDS VEER TO BE FROM THE SE AND S CONTINUING AS A STRONG BREEZE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT DIMINISH BACK TO A MODERATE OR FRESH BREEZE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER ON SUNDAY AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. SEAS COULD REACH 8-9 FT UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS AND SOME NORTHERLY SWELL TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO ONLY 4-6 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.