000 AGXX40 KNHC 281834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO N CENTRAL GULF HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SE THIS MORNING...AND NOW REACHES FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY AREA WSWS TO AROUND 25.5N90W. SCT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS INCREASED IN RECENT HOURS FROM THE EARLY MORNING MINIMUM. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ORLEANS AREA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N98W. NE WINDS NEAR 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND HAVE BUILT SEAS TO AT LEAST 4 FT. THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GRADUALLY MERGE ALONG ABOUT 27N ON TUE. NE TO E WINDS NEAR 15 KT WILL BRIEFLY PREVAIL N OF THE NEW BOUNDARY TUE...THEN LATER TUE THROUGH THURSDAY A FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GULF...AND BUILD SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST THU...AND MOVE SLOWLY SE INT THE NW GULF EARLY FRIDAY...WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS SEASON...GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HR FASTER IN MOVING THIS FRONT INTO THE BASIN THAN ECMWF AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF THEN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN HAS BEGUN TO RELAX A BIT TODAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS SHIFTING E-SE AND NOW ALONG 54W. MORNING SCAT PASSES DID NOT COVER COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS WHERE GALES WERE IN EFFECT LAST NIGHT AND HAVE FOLLOWED GFS TREND THERE. FRESH TO STRONG E TRADES CONTINUE TODAY E OF ABOUT 78W AND HAVE PRODUCED ROUGH SEAS OVER PAST 24 HOURS. MORNING ALTIMETER AND BUOY OBS SHOWED SEAS 7-9 FT COVERING MOST OF CARIB N OF 13N E OF 70W...AND EXTENDING EWD INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. 42058 HAS FLUCTUATED 9-10 FT THIS MORNING AND 42059 HOLDING AT 8 FT. GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY WEAKENING RIDGE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH SHIFTS E INTO CENTRAL ATLC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND EVEN FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC AND PRES GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS EACH EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH AREA OF WINDS LARGE ENOUGH TO KICK UP SEAS TO 8 FT BY EARLY THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONVECTION IS BECOMING ACTIVE AGAIN ACROSS NW PORTIONS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF JET DYNAMICS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE TODAY AND REACH THE CAP CANAVERAL AREA TO NEAR 31N73W BY THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...AND MOVE SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS UNDERNEATH JET ENERGY. MORNING ASCAT PASSES MISSED THE NW PART OF THE AREA...BUT GFS SUGGESTED SW WINDS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29-30N THAT WILL LIFT NE AND OUT OF AREA THIS EVENING...ONLY TO SHIFT E AND REMAIN BARELY N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH TO SHIFT E DURING THIS TIME AND RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...BUT REMAIN INTACT TO ALMOST THE BAHAMAS AND YIELD MODERATE TO FRESH ESE TRADES ACROSS THE SE WATERS...WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF TRADES ALONG THE N COASTS OF PR AND HISPANIOLA. FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR 31N65W SW THEN W TO CENTRAL FL BY TUE EVENING...WITH NEXT FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW ATLC AND APPROACHING FIRST FRONT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM...WHILE BROAD MODERATE RIDGE BEGIN S TO BUILD ACROSS NW WATERS BEHIND SECOND FRONT. BUILDING RIDGE TO AID IN NEAR MERGER OF THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS BY WED...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N60W TO 28N70W TO CENTRAL FL WED MORNING...WITH REMNANTS OF FIRST FRONT SUGGESTED BY MODELS A BIT FURTHER S TO THE W OF 65W...AND EXTENDING WSW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PRES GRADIENT N OF THE FRONTS TO TIGHTEN WED AND BEGIN TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS...BUILDING SEAS 7-9 FT BY THU MORNING. HIGH TO SHIFT E TO ALONG 50W BY FRI MORNING WITH STRONG SLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS NW WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.