000 AGXX40 KNHC 280759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WINDS - 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. WAVES - 00 UTC NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 29N86W EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT STILL IS OCCURRING...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED FROM A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION...WINDS ARE MODERATE BREEZE OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. THE TWO STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD LIKELY MERGE IN ABOUT A DAY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LITTLE WIND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS LIKELY AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY PRODUCE STRONG BREEZE NE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SATURDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WINDS - 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. WAVES - 00 UTC NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTED NE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. SHIP ZCDGR REPORTED NE 30 KT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AT 07 UTC. NO WAVE HEIGHT REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA OF LIKELY STRONGEST WINDS...THOUGH BUOY 42058 REPORTED 10-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 13-14 ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING SOON AND IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE GALE WILL BE DROPPED AT 12 UTC. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD STILL REACH FRESH BREEZE TO NEAR GALE IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM UNTIL THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE FRESH BREEZE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DROP BELOW 8 FT ON THURSDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WINDS - 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. WAVES - 00 UTC NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN JET STREAM BRANCHES OVER THE SE U.S. IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SHOWERS OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE NEWD OVER THE NE GULF AND INTO THE SE U.S ALONG THE VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM JETSTREAM BRANCH SITUATED THERE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE NW WATERS TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N35W ANCHORS A VERY BROAD RIDGE THAT SPANS THE MAJORITY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS SW TO CENTRAL FL AND THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SUPPORTED BY THIS RIDGE WITH POCKETS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE...BETWEEN THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND ALSO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW ZONES ON TUE WILL HELP TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND SE AND S PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING ON TUE NIGHT...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE OF THE MID- ATLC COAST AND ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY WED EVENING. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE AN INCREASE TO ELY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-8 FT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE THROUGH FRI...AND BECOME FRESH SE-S IN THE NW PORTION AS THE HIGH PRES TRANSLATES EASTWARD. SEAS WILL BUILD HIGHER...TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE IN THE FAR NW PORTION FRI PER THE 00 UTC NWPS GUIDANCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA/AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.