000 AGXX40 KNHC 271859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA ENE TO OVER NE FL AND SE GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N93W TO 24N95W. THE TROUGH IS E OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST INLAND THE TEXAS COAST. CURRENT NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE SHOWER/TSTM NOW CONCENTRATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 85W-89W...AND SPREADING ENE. THE GOES LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT IS REVEALING FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS S OF THE WARM FRONT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LIGHT NW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT SEAS IN THE FAR ERN GULF...AND ALSO W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 25N892W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS ASCENT DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALONG WITH VERY MOIST SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A PSN FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 24N93W...AND STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF BY THIS EVENING. MODERATE NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL REACH FROM N CENTRAL FL TO NEAR 24N91W BY EARLY ON MON...AND MOVE E OF THE GULF MON AFTERNOON WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N86W TO 24N92W AND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO E ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND BE IN THE LIGHT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT. BY LATE TUE NIGHT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT...AND MOVE INLAND THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE ON THU...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE QUICKLY REACH FROM N CENTRAL FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NE-E MODERATE WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE NW GULF FRI BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 12 UTC MWW3/TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA LAST NIGHT SUPPORTED NE GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WAS INDICATED BY A WINDSAT PASS FROM 1126 UTC THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. THE NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE MON MORNING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS THROUGH AND NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ALSO...FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN JET STREAM BRANCHES OVER THE SE U.S. IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SHOWERS OVER THE NW WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSISTS INTO MON AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE NEWD OVER THE NE GULF AND INTO THE SE U.S ALONG THE VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM JETSTREAM BRANCH SITUATED THERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY ON MON...AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N35W ANCHORS A VERY BROAD RIDGE THAT SPANS THE MAJORITY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS SW TO CENTRAL FL AND THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SUPPORTED BY THIS RIDGE WITH POCKETS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE...BETWEEN THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND ALSO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW ZONES ON TUE WILL HELP TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND SE AND S PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING ON TUE NIGHT...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE OF THE MID- ATLC COAST AND ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY WED EVENING. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE AN INCREASE TO ELY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-8 FT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE THROUGH FRI...AND BECOME FRESH SE-S IN THE NW PORTION AS THE HIGH PRES TRANSLATES EASTWARD. SEAS WILL BUILD HIGHER...TO THE 7-10 FT RANGE IN THE FAR NW PORTION FRI PER THE 12 UTC MWW3 GUIDANCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...GALE WARNING TONIGHT FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.