000 AGXX40 KNHC 270739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 339 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FORMER DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 29N90W TO 22N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING OFF THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE AS SHOWN BY THE GOES LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT. A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE POSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THAT ALSO EXTENDS TO THE NE GULF N OF 25N. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NE BASIN WHILE SCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. SEAS IN THE NE BASIN HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT BUT WILL DIMINISH AT SUNRISE ALONG WITH THE WINDS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASCENT DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO 26N86W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT WITH TAIL EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NW AND EXTEND OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE BY LATE NIGHT TUE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN DRIFTS INLAND TO THE N-NE AS A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE WED MORNING. SELY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT FROM STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S OVER THE ERN GULF PORTION AND LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SCAT PASS. A SHIP MOVING TOWARD THE PANAMA CHANNEL REPORTED 40 KT IN THIS REGION WITH ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 15 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SUN EVENING AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC GRADUALLY WEAKENS WHILE MOVING E. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DECREASING BELOW GALE FORCE. A BROADER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS THROUGH AND NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. ALSO...FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN JET STREAM BRANCHES SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW WATERS...REACHING S TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS W OF 70W. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS. ON TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN FL AND TO THE N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N35W ANCHORS A VERY BROAD RIDGE THAT SPANS THE MAJORITY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS SW TO CENTRAL FL AND THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SUPPORTED BY THIS RIDGE WITH POCKETS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE...BETWEEN THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND ALSO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW ZONES ON TUE WILL HELP TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND SE AND S PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING ON TUE NIGHT...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE OF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY WED EVENING. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE AN INCREASE TO ELY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THAT TIME WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5-8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.