000 AGXX40 KNHC 260755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 29N86W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 26N94W TO 21N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO 25N89W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N W OF 89W. FRESH SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH MODERATE EASTERLIES ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE DAY SAT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM SW TO NE. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE N TO NW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TODAY. EVEN AFTER THE FORECAST DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...ASCENT DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL US AND A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF COAST. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY SUN AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO SUN EVENING. BY MON THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N90W AND THEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N88W ON TUE. GFS CURRENTLY IS FORECASTING ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. A HEAT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS AND HAS MOVED WNW OFF THE PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SAT EVENING. A WEAKER EVENT IS FORECAST FOR SUN EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS VERIFIED BY A 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA WITH SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT PROPAGATING WELL WEST OF THE GALE AREA TO NEAR 81W. THESE SWELL ARE ALSO VERIFIED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS NEAR 12N81W INDICATING SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT. A BROADER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX MON WITH ONLY STRONG NOCTURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN IN THE MONA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THIS WEEK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A MID LEVEL VORT MAX SUPPORTS MODERATE CONVECTION OVER OUR NW WATERS THIS MORNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE N FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION N OF THE BAHAMAS. ON TUE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND TO THE N OF THE BAMAHAS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N49W ANCHORS A VERY BROAD RIDGE THAT SPANS THE MAJORITY OF SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS TO THE SE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SUPPORTED BY THIS RIDGE WITH POCKETS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALSO BETWEEN THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW ZONES ON TUE WILL HELP TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE TRADES OVER THE BAHAMAS ...GREATER ANTILLES...AND OUR SURROUNDING ATLC ZONES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.