000 AGXX40 KNHC 251853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF BLEND MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLEND OF 12 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. AS OF 18Z A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING E OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG A PSN FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO 24N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF. A HEAT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 91W/92W S OF 23N. THE WRN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES PROTRUDES INTO THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR DATA ARE REVEALING LARGE TSTM COMPLEXES OVER MUCH OF THE NE GULF ZONE GMZ015. IN ADDITION...THE LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA IS INDICATING NUMEROUS LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING INITIATED BY A RATHER ROBUST MID TO UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE WRN PART OF THE ERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 30 KT AS IT TRACKS ENE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH NW-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 6-8 FT NOTED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING IN THE FAR SW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO ARE SUBSIDING TO THE RANGE OF 5-6 FT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY MODERATE SE-S WINDS E OF THE FRONT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT. THESE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE ERN GULF MON AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ON TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE IN DIRECTION...EXCEPT NE IN DIRECTION IN THE FAR NR PORTION AND LIGHT E-SE IN THE SE PORTION WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLING FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FL TO 26N90W TO 23N93W TO 19N94W TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. MODERATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NE MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE ERN GULF WATERS BY WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE RETURN SLY FLOW TO SET-UP IN THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. RESULTANT SEAS ON WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE WITH SOME POSSIBLE POCKETS OF 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE NE GULF PORTION PER MWW3/NWPS GUIDANCE. THE HEAT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND MOVE WNW OFF THE THAT PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. EXPECT 20-25 KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE N OF COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF BLEND MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLEND OF 12 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER EPISODE OF MINIMAL GALE WARNING WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON FRI AND ON SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS THERE IN THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT PER MWW3/NWPS GUIDANCE. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING WIND AREA...A BROADER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY STRONG NOCTURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN IN THE MONA PASSAGE. ALSO FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF BLEND MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLEND OF 12 UTC MWW3/TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1033 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED WELL TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS AT 33N49W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO TO S FL AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR DATA ARE REVEALING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING QUICKLY NEWD OVER MUCH OF THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNDER UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BNDRY IS SITUATED. BOTH ASCAT AND BUOY DATA ARE SHOWING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND HISPANIOLA THAT IS BEING INDUCED BY THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE THROUGH MON. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS... EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT SEAS IN E SWELL E OF ABOUT 70W. LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. A POCKET OF 5-6 FT SEAS ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW PORTION IS FORECAST BY GFS GUIDANCE TO ADVECT E TO NE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES THROUGH SAT EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS SAT EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT IS UNFAVORABLE TO ALLOW MUCH OF A SWD PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION MON...AND REACH THE EASTERN PORTION BY TUE NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WED WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NE-E MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE ZONES 111 AND 113 WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE THERE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.