000 AGXX40 KNHC 250639 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 22N98W AS OF 0000 UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 80 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FL IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR THE IMPULSE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF TO MOVE E TO SE THIS MORNING...HELPING TO SPREAD CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY N OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N90W...AND STATIONARY TO 18N93W BY FRI EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION FRI WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY STALL OUT SAT MORNING AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NW DURING THE DAY SAT...DISSIPATING SAT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SUPPORTING TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...THE POSITIONING OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON...REACHING FROM FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON NIGHT. A HEAT INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND THEN MOVING WNW OFF THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENINGS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. EXPECT 20-25 KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE N OF COAST OF THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT EVENINGS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT DURING THESE GALE EVENTS. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WIND AREA...A BROADER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY STRONG NOCTURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN IN THE MONA PASSAGE. ALSO FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM BEYOND 25N65W TO WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES JUST NE OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 29N71W TO 27N75W. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT N AND MERGE INTO AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER AND E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION N 27N W OF 71W. THIS FAVORABLE REGION OF LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO ADVECT E TO NE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ONGOING CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FL PENINSULA E TO 70W. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WILL STALL OUT SAT BEFORE MAKING IT INTO OUR PORTION OF THE ATLC. HOWEVER...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WELL E OF THE FRONT...MAINLY N OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OFF THE N FL COAST WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KT LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RETREATS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH MON. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON AND REACH OUR NW ZONES MON EVENING AND THEN REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.