000 AGXX40 KNHC 241803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT...PRECEDED BY A CONVECTIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH... MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION FROM THE W FL PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRI...STALL FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI EVENING...THEN DRIFT W ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE N- CENTRAL GULF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GFS HINTING AT MINIMAL GALE BRIEFLY. SINCE OTHER GUIDANCE MOSTLY IN THE STRONG RANGE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS REASONING OF FORECASTING A 30 KT MAX AND SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THE FAR SW WATERS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST ON THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH. A HEAT TROUGH HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND THEN MOVING WNW OFF THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENINGS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THIS EVENING WITH 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE N OF COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN. GUIDANCE NOW MOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER FL ON MON BEFORE IT STALLS. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS EXPECTED IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A 0336 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS LAST NIGHT DETECTED NE-E 30-35 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS FORECAST. EXPECT ANOTHER MINIMAL GALE EVENT TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRI AND SAT EVENINGS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO PERHAPS 14 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY STRONG NOCTURNAL WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ALSO EXPECT STRONG NE-E FLOW TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN IN THE MONA PASSAGE. STRONG E FLOW ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS BLENDED WITH MWW3. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS E-W BETWEEN 24-25N TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING N AND DISSIPATING THROUGH FRI. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NE FL WITH FRESH E FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS S OF THE RIDGE...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 23N...INCLUDING APPROACH TO CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST ON SAT...STALL SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES N OF THE RIDGE ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE N FL COAST ON MON AND REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.