000 AGXX40 KNHC 240600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. S-SE RETURN FLOW AROUND A RIDGE ALONG 30N DOMINATES THE REGION. SHIP OBS...BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...STALL FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI...THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF THIS WEEKEND. A BRIEF SHOT OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW GULF SUN MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 32N60W AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ASCAT PASS AT 03Z SHOWED SMALL AREA OF 30-33 KT WINDS NEAR 12N74.5W BUT NO GALE WARNINGS. GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS PICKING UP SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING THROUGH 12Z. MODELS SHOW WINDS REMAINING STRONG IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH EARLY MON WITH NE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES THIS MORNING...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. EPISODES OF FRESH TO STRONG E-SE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 22N AND 23N. ASCAT DATA SHOWS MODERATE-FRESH TRADES N OF THE TROUGH AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY. A RIDGE ALONG 31N ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA NEAR 32N60W DOMINATES THE REGION WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA S OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS EXPECTED S OF 22N...INCLUDING APPROACHES TO CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE N OF 30N SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.