000 AGXX40 KNHC 230630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC AND THE ENTIRE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ASCAT DATA SHOWS SLY RETURN FLOW WELL UNDERWAY IN THE NW GULF WITH 20-25 KT WINDS GENERALLY N OF 24N W OF 94W. MIDWEST LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE TX COAST EARLY THU AND EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT...THEN STALL AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM N FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GFS MODEL SHOWS A BRIEF SURGE OF N WINDS ALONG THE MEX COAST NEAR TAMPICO REACHING GALE FORCE...BUT NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE THIS...SO EXPECT MAX WINDS TO REACH 30 KT W OF THE FRONT THU EVENING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OVER MOST ZONES...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NW GULF LATE SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW CARIB NOW DEPICTED AS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ON 03Z SFC ANALYSIS AND LIKELY TO BE GONE BY 09Z. WINDS AND SEAS INDICATED FROM BUOY DATA HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NEAR THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAIN FOCUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE STATIONARY LOW PRES OVER N COLOMBIA AROUND 1005-1008 MB COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 10-15N BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT NE WINDS TO BE MINIMAL GALE OVERNIGHT THIS AM BETWEEN 00Z-12Z AND REACH 35 KT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. MODEL HINTS AT GALE WARNINGS AGAIN THU NIGHT...BUT THAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...EXPECT 30 KT WINDS AS A MINIMUM AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 20-30 KT WINDS SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ON SAT IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA SHOWS OBVIOUS SHEAR LINE CHARACTERISTICS MAINLY E OF AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS S OF THE BOUNDARY AND MUCH STRONGER N-NE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 56W-73W. EXPECT FRONT TO WASH OUT AND DRIFT WNW THROUGH THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 30-31N THROUGH THU WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU AND WINDS WILL VEER TO S AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SE US COAST THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI. MODELS NOW STRINGING THIS FRONT OUT ACROSS AND BARELY INTO NW WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND THEN DRIFT QUICKLY BACK TO THE COAST ON SAT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.