000 AGXX40 KNHC 221828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO GO STATIONARY ACROSS NW CARIB THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH BEHIND IT HAS SHIFTED TO SE GEORGIA COAST. WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAVE ABATED ACROSS THE S AND SE GULF...BUT SEAS WERE STILL SUBSIDING THIS MORNING WITH 12Z ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING 7-10 FT SEAS ALONG 86.5W S OF 24N AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS IN YUCATAN CHANNEL. RETURN FLOW INCREASING ACROSS NW PORTIONS W OF 90W TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEERING ELSEWHERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT 36-48 HOURS HIGH SHIFTING E INTO THE W ATLC AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ENTIRE BASIN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS SEASON...THERE IS SOME MODEST MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU MORNING. GFS AS USUAL IS FASTEST AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SE THAN ECMWF AND UKMET. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION SO I HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO SW GULF NEAR VERACRUZ BY 12Z FRI WITH INVERTED TROFFING ACROSS CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AHEAD OF IT. FRONT TO STALL NEAR THIS POSITION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THEN SW PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY SHIFT NW SAT AND ENTIRE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NW SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO STALL ACROSS EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TO NEAR E COAST OF CUBA TO NE HONDURAS NEAR LAGUNA DE CARATASCA. HIGH PRES IS NOW DUE N OF THE NW CARIB AND STILL MAINTAINING STRONG NELY WINDS NW OF FRONT TO ALMOST YUCATAN CHANNEL. 12Z ALTIMETER PASS ALONG E COASTAL WATERS OF YUCATAN DOWN INTO CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS SHOWED SEAS 4-6 FT N OF 18.5N THERE AND 7-9 FT IN GULF OF HONDURAS. 42057 BUILT TO 11 FT AT 14Z AND HOLDING NOW AT 10 FT SUGGESTING BROAD AREA OF 7-10 NW OF FRONT. WAVE MODELS ABOUT 2 FT LOW ACROSS THIS AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT WITH SOLID AREA OF 25-30 KT OFF COLOMBIA AND 20 KT TRADES EXTENDING N TO AROUND 15.5N 70-74W. ATLC HIGH HAS SHIFTED INTO ERN ATLC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO SE BAHAMAS AND PRODUCING ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM CAPE VERDES TO LESSER ANTILLES. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE ENE TRADE WIND SWELL REACHING THE ISLANDS AND IS BEST DEPICTED BY ECWAVE...WITH WW3 ABOUT 1 FT LOW ACROSS THIS REGION. FRONT TO STALL THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO WEAKENS INTO A SHEARLINE AS IT DRIFTS WNW WED AND THU. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 00Z-12Z TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS E ALONG 30-31N AND PASSES DUE N OF THIS AREA. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT INTO FRI...INCLUDING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT BY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY STALLING ACROSS ERN TIP OF CUBA TO EXTREME SE BAHAMAS BUT CONTINUES EWD PROGRESS TO THE NE...CURRENTLY NEAR 31N62W. MORNING SCAT DATA SHOWED STRONG SW-S WINDS N OF 29N AHEAD OF FRONT AND NW TO N WINDS BEHIND FRONT TO 68W...AND N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT W OF 68W FROM 26N TO FRONT. THIS PRODUCING VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG N COAST OF CUBA. 42048 ROSE TO 12 FT AT 11-12Z THIS MORNING AND ABOUT 3 FT ABOVE WW3 AND HAVE A 50-50 BLEND OF WW3 AND ECWAVE FOR THIS PKG IN ATLC. SEAS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT AND E OF 77W. FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 24N65W TO FAR ERN CUBA BY WED MORNING THEN BEGIN TO WASH OUT AND DRIFT WNW THROUGH THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 30-31N THROUGH THU BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU AND WINDS WILL VEER TO S AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SE US COAST THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI. MODELS NOW STRINGING THIS FRONT OUT ACROSS AND BARELY INTO NW WATERS FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND THEN DRIFT QUICKLY BACK TO THE COAST ON SAT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.