000 AGXX40 KNHC 220640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS DOMINATES THE REGION. ASCAT DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEA HEIGHTS HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH MAX SEAS 8-9 FT IN SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 7-8 FT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SE RETURN HAS ALREADY COMMENCED IN THE NW GULF AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E INTO THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU WILL RACE S IN THE WESTERN GULF THU TO EXTEND FROM FLA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MX BY THU EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FRI AND STALL FROM TAMPA FL THROUGH 25N90W TO BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE SAT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT 5 DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN STILL PACKING A PUNCH...AS ASCAT DATA AT 0240 UTC SHOWS 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS. PARTIAL ALTIMETER PASS AT 00Z SHOWED 9-11 FT SEAS...AND BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W IS REPORTING 8 FT SEAS AFTER A MAX OF 11 FT 6-8 HOURS AGO. ASCAT ALSO INDICATES LARGE AREA OF FRESH WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W...WITH MAX WINDS TO 30 KT IN A TINY AREA AT THE COASTLINE NEAR 11.3N74.4W. EXPECT THE WINDS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE BASIN...WHILE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS INTO A SHEAR LINE FROM HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 00Z-12Z TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT INTO FRI. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N66W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. ASCAT AND BUOY DATA SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH MAX SEAS TO 9-10 FT N AND NW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS E CUBA TONIGHT...AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 23N65W TO HAITI WED THEN WASH OUT AND DRIFT WNW THROUGH THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 30-31N THROUGH THU BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU AND WINDS WILL VEER TO S AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SE US COAST...EXPECTED TO REACH GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST FRI...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 30N-31N SAT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.