000 AGXX40 KNHC 211817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 217 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE BASIN TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS ATTM. WINDS COMING DOWN ACROSS W HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO ALREADY...WITH RECENT 1440Z RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS VEERING TO NE OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ. ISLA DE SACRIFICIO AND VERACRUZ MARINA HAVE NOT REPORTED GALE WINDS SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS MAY NOT HAVE VERIFIED AS FORECAST BY GFS. STRONG NLY FLOW PREVAILS E OF 90W AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM. SEAS PROBABLY SUBSIDING TO 9-11 FT ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE ATTM AND AREA 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS SE QUARTER OF BASIN WITH PEAK AROUND 11 FT EXPECTED IN YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODEL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH CENTERED ACROSS ARKLAMIS ATTM SHIFTS EWD. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS EVENING AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU TO REACH FROM FL PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MX THU NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. AS AS BEEN THE CASE THIS SEASON...GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE SE OF ECMWF WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL USE A MEAN POSITION ON FRONT. 12Z GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR NLY GALES BEHIND FRONT ACROSS UPPER MEXICAN COAST THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO NOW EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W TO 18N86.5W THEN SW INTO GULF OF HONDURAS. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OR CONVERGENCE LINE ACTING TO TRIGGER ACTIVE CNVTN ABOUT 90 NM SE OF FRONT AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS BEST JET DYNAMICS SHIFT AWAY FROM THAT AREA. STRONG NLY FLOW IS BEHIND FRONT BUT NO SCAT PASSES THIS MORNING. 42056 IS NOW NNE AT 25 KT AND 6 FT. 1144Z ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS SHOWED SEAS 5-6.5 FT TO THE W OF 87.3W AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WW3. TO THE E...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL E OF 77W AND INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. ECWAVE STILL CAPTURING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLC BETTER THAN WW3 AND SEEMS TO VERIFY WITH BUOYS AND ALTIMETER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC THIS MORNING...SHOWING 8 FT SEAS MUCH FARTHER N AND W THAN WW3. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE AND REACH FAR ERN CUBA TO EXTREME NE HONDURAS BY 12Z TUE WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND THEN WEAKEN...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE NW WED. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN VEER QUICKLY AND DIMINISH TO MODERATE-FRESH BY TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES SHIFTING EWD ALONG 30-31N TUE THROUGH WED WILL PASS DUE N OF COLOMBIAN BASIN TO PRODUCE STRONG E-NE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MID- WEEK. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE WARNING ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WED AND 00-12Z THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT WITH BUOYS REPORTING 8-9 FT SEAS. FRONT INVOF 31N71.5W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W WITH CONVERGENCE LINE AHEAD OF FRONT 60-90 NM N OF 27N. WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE AHEAD OF FRONT IN NW CARIB EXTENDS NE ACROSS CUBA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RECENT SCAT PASSES DEPICT NNW WINDS 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WERE SEAS ARE 8-10 FT...AND BUILDING W OF BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N61W TO FAR ERN CUBA BY 12Z TUE...WHERE IT WILL STALL ACROSS CUBA...AND LAY DOWN AND GO STATIONARY FROM 23.5N65W TO E CUBA 12Z WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AND DRIFT WNW THROUGH THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG 30-31N TUE THROUGH THU BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WIND AND SEAS DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY THU AS WINDS VEER FROM E TO S AND ATLC HIGH OPENS UP INTO E COAST OF U.S. AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.