000 AGXX40 KNHC 210630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BASIN...WHILE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO STREAM E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT MYERS TO WESTERN YUCATAN. ASCAT DATA SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. 0400 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES NEAR GALE 32-33 KT WINDS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP GALE WARNING AT 06Z. SEA HEIGHT DATA AT BUOY 42055 SHOWS IMPRESSIVE 12-14 FT SEAS THIS MORNING...ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 FCST. WILL BUMP UP SEAS IN THE GULF REGION ABOUT 1-2 FT INITIALLY. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH FURTHER S TODAY AND FULLY EXIT THE BASIN BY TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY MON NIGHT AND TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU TO REACH FROM FL PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MX THU NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE. ASCAT DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND MODERATE-FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROP N ATLC. BUOY DATA AND SURFACE OBS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS/WW3 GRIDS FCST. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO BREACH YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NW CARIB FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA TUE. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING...DIMINISHING TO MODERATE-FRESH BY TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH WED WILL PRODUCE STRONG E-NE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MID-WEEK. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. WILL ADD GALE WARNING FOR TUE NIGHT IN NEXT FCST PACKAGE AND PSBL GALE WORDING FOR WED NIGHT IN OFFSHORES. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS NW PORTION OF AREA ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND DENSE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE AREA. ASCAT DATA SHOWS FRESH-STRONG N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MODERATE S-SE ANTICYCLONIC WIND ELSEWHERE ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF 75W. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SUGGEST SEAS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO WW3 FCST GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI TONIGHT...WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE W OF 65W THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH A REMNANT SHEAR LINE TRAILING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 31N TUE THROUGH THU BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.