000 AGXX40 KNHC 201838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL FL...N OF TAMPA BAY...TO 24N90W TO E CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SCAT DATA SHOWED NNW WINDS 30 KT S OF 24N AND W OF FRONT...BUT NO VERIFICATION LAST NIGHT OR CURRENTLY OF GALES. VERACRUZ HARBOR AND ISLA DE SACRIFICIO BOTH REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE HIGH 30'S EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHILE 1642Z ASCAT PASS INVOF SUGGESTING PSBL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ...AND ALSO HINTED IN STLT LOOPS. THIS MAY NOT BE ALLOWING NLY WIND TO BLAST DOWN THE COAST...BUT IT IS SPILLING ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. LUCKY ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA SHOWED SEAS 10-12.5 FT AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ECWAVE AND NWPS. ELSEWHERE STRONG NORTHERLIES BEHIND FRONT HAVE SPREAD E TO FAR W FL PANHANDLE...AND 8 FT SEAS AS FAR N AS 28N AND W OF 87W BEHIND FRONT. MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL POSITIONING AND POST FRONTAL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH GFS STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER IN MOVING FRONT SE OF AREA TONIGHT AND ECMWF SHOWING STRONG NLY FLOW LINGERING ABOUT 6 HRS LONGER ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALES EXPECTED TO END ACROSS VERACRUZ AREA AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO NW CARIB. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NW OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG N TO NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MON BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NE GULF TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF MON AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NW GULF WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST THU...REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF LATE THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY WITH MODERATE E-SE TRADES E OF 75W...STRONG E TRADES ACROSS COLOMBIAN BASIN S OF 15N...AND FLOW OPENED UP ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO. 42058 UP TO 9 FT IN PAST HOUR AND REFLECTING E-SE FETCH ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN AND EXPANDED STRONG FLOW ACROSS COLOMBIA BASIN PAST 6-8 HRS. BROAD LOW OVER GULF OF HONDURAS DEPCITED BY RECENT SCAT PASSES WITH SMALL AREA SE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS SE QUAD AND SEAS SUGGESTED 5-7 FT BY 12Z ALTIMETER PASS NEARBY. FRESH TRADES BUILDING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY COMBINING WITH FADING LONG PERIOD NE SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS 7-8 FT THERE AND 8-9 FT JUST TO THE E IN HIGH SEAS AREA. ECWAVE CAPTURING THIS SWELL SCENARIO WELL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH TUE...WITH GFS SHOWING WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON MORNING...THEN STALL FROM ERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AND DRIFT WWD WED. STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS MODERATE SE TO S ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF AREA IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FLORIDA AND EXTREME NW WATERS. MORNING SCAT PASSES SUGGEST ELONGATED LOW PRES ALONG FRONT ACROSS ATLC...WHILE SWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS AND BAHAMAS S OF FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...REACHING 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W BY 12Z MON...THEN27N65W TO FAR E CUBA BY 12Z TUE AND STALL ACROSS SE WATERS FROM 23.5N65W TO E CUBA WED. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE FOCUS OF SCT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MON...WITH FRESHENING SWLY FLOW ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS SUPPORTING LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC. THIS TO PRODUCE CLASSIC NNW SWELL MOVING BEHIND BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS. LAST NIGHT MODEL RUNS WERE SIMILAR TO RECENT TRENDS...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER SE WITH MORE PRONOUNCED PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND ECMWF A BIT SLOWER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.