000 AGXX40 KNHC 200630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE OBS AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS DIED DOWN DURING THE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NW OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MON BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NE GULF TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF MON AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NW GULF WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST THU...REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF LATE THU NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. ASCAT DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS N OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. FRESH SE WINDS ARE ALSO EVIDENT OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS. ALTIMETER PASSES WERE ONLY AVAILABLE FOR THE W CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS S OF 14N E OF WINDWARD ISL WERE ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FROM WW3 GUIDANCE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH TUE...WITH GFS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON...THEN DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO E HONDURAS TUE. STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE SE TO S ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW PREVAILS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS RIDGE RETREATS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 27N. BUOY AND ALTIMETER OBS SHOW WW3 LESS THAN 1 FT TOO LOW...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH NWPS. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA TUE AND WED. GFS A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL POSITIONS AND ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER ECMWF. PRIMARY QUESTION REMAINS HOW STRONG THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN ZONE AMZ111 WILL BE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS 25-30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT NW PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.