000 AGXX40 KNHC 191849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING WITH SQUALLS AND TSTMS ALONG FRONT AND KICKED UP SEAS ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF MODELS...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S PER BUOYS. 42020 ROSE TO 9 FT BY 09Z AND 42019 HIT 9 FT AT 12Z...WITH BOTH HAVING JUST RISEN AGAIN TO 9 FT. FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR W FL PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS SW TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST WHERE A LLVL VORT HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE. NLY FLOW CAN BE SEEN SPILLING DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST WITH COASTAL OBS AROUND 20 KT AND VERY GUSTY ALL THE WAY S TO VERACRUZ...WHILE TAMPICO GUSTING TO 30 KT. UPPER S/W AND JET ENERGY KICKING OFF STRONG CNVTN ALONG FRONT AND PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND S FL. OBS SHOWING WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 12Z GFS HAVING BACKED OFF OF GALES OFF TAMPICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GEFS NOT SHOWING ANY GALE PROBS TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SREF...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GALES STARTING IN THE MORNING BY 12Z OFF OF VERACRUZ. GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE SE OF ECMWF WITH THE FRONT AND TAKEN A MEAN. GALE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED EARLIER FOR WINDS OFF TAMPICO STARTING AT 21Z TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON 12Z ECMWF TO SEE IF THIS IS STILL WARRANTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY SAT AND FROM FL BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT EVENING BEFORE MOVING SE OF AREA PAST THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GALES ACROSS SW PORTIONS THROUGH 00Z MON...AND COULD REACH 40 KT SUN AFTERNOON. STRONG N TO NE WINDS THEN PREVAIL BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MON BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NE GULF TUE AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS W PORTIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF 80W EXCEPT STRONG ACROSS COLOMBIA BASIN...WHERE MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED PEAK SEAS 8-9 FT. WITH ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILED ALSO ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC AND IS BLEEDING THROUGH NE CARIB PASSAGES...AND PRODUCING SEAS 7-9 FT ACROSS WATERS E OF THE ISLANDS. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVE SE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN-EARLY MON...REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NW GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON...AND DISSIPATE FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS TUE. STRONG N TO NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF MODERATE SE TO S WIND FLOW PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO...AS RIDGE EXTENDS NEARLY WWD ALONG 27N. BUOY AND ALTIMETER OBS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED WW3 SHOWING TYPICAL LOW BIAS WITH SWELL...AS VERY LONG PERIOD NE SWELL ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WW3...AND VERY NEARLY IN LINE WITH ECWAVE. THIS SWELL TO FADE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMAL ENERGY LEFT TOMORROW. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT ACTING AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SQUALLS AND TSTMS. FRONT TO MOVE INTO EXTREME NW WATERS BY 12Z SUN...AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 12Z MON...THEN FROM 27.5N65W TO E CUBA 12Z TUE WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. AGAIN...GFS WAS A BIT FAST WITH FRONTAL POSITIONS AND ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. PRIMARY QUESTION REMAINS HOW STRONG THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN ZONE AMZ111 BE. MODELS LOOK IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS 25-30 KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT NW PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.