000 AGXX40 KNHC 190630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM MERGING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS W OF FRONT AS IT SURGES S IN THE WESTERN GULF. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH MORE THAN 70 PCT IN W BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BUT ONLY 25-30 PCT IN ZONE 017 TAMPICO COAST SAT NIGHT. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WARNINGS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING...REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY SAT AND FROM FLA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT EVENING BEFORE MOVING SE OF AREA PAST THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE WARNING FORCE N WINDS FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 96W SAT WITH GALE WARNING CONDITIONS SHIFTING SE INTO THE FAR SW GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN...REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON...AND DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO EASTERN HONDURAS TUE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WARNING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GFS WAS USED PRIMARILY FOR POPULATING THE WIND FIELDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN EVENING...FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA TUE AND WED. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE FRONTAL POSITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE AMONG THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN ZONE 111 WILL BE. GFS SHOWS 30 KT WINDS AND THE EC IS A LITTLE WEAKER AT 22-25 KT SUN NIGHT. EXPECT 20-25 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.