000 AGXX40 KNHC 180605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS TODAY THEN STALL FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 24N95W. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE ALONG THE FRONT SAT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT THEN SWEEP SE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND FRONT WILL RELAX MON WITH SLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE W GULF BY MON NIGHT...THEN SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TUE. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE LOW THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT TO REACH GALE FORCE SO WILL CAP MAX WINDS AT 30 KT SAT...BUT LATEST ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR N-NW GALE WINDS IN W BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. GRADIENT BETWEEN MID-ATLC HIGH AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. STRONG SE WINDS EXPECTED IN GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. A COLD FRONT REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON THEN WASH OUT MON NIGHT AND TUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 00Z ECMWF FALLING IN LINE WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS REGARDING POLEWARD EXTENT OF FRONT INTO NW CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST INTO NW WATERS EARLY SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN EVENING...FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 23N65W TO HAITI THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT RACING NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.